Signal: Dangerous decisions, economies of scale, and inflatable penguins

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Update time : 2019-09-04 14:52:13

Originally published by Ian Bremmer at LinkedIn: Signal: Dangerous decisions, economies of scale, and inflatable penguins

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DANGEROUS DECISIONS

After a roller-coaster week, select Minister Theresa can struck an 11th hour business deal with the EU this morning that will further Brexit talks ought the next phase. What was complete the drama about?

Earlier this year, British select Minister Theresa May, encouraged by favorable poll numbers, decided ought growl an selection that she believed used to enlarge her Conservative Party’s majority at parliament and raise her political standing ahead of Brexit negotiations with European leaders.

Then she ran a lousy campaign, and her dinner lost its majority. ought catalog a new government, she was forced ought fellow with the Democratic Unionist dinner (DUP), a few dinner based at Northern Ireland that few outer Britain know much about.

The central puzzle with that selection became evident this week. ought further the conversation toward the future of the business relationship among the UK and EU, can make ought first finalize the Brexit “divorce agreement” by agreeing at three things: The status of EU citizens reside at the UK, the size of the UK’s debt ought the EU, and the status of the border that separates the Republic of Ireland (an EU member) from Northern Ireland (part of the UK).

To fly restoration of a “hard border” among the two Irelands, a relic of the bad old days, can implicitly agreed this week ought allow Northern Ireland ought remain at the EU’s sole market. at Monday, that resolution was presented during the breakthrough that used to influence Brexit forward. at Tuesday, the DUP, with 10 members at Britain’s 650-member parliament, said no. Is it no true, asked DUP leaders, that if Northern Ireland remainder at the EU sole market, other parts of the UK can petition the too privilege? Heads began nodding at Scotland, Wales, and London. This morning, can construct vocabulary that threads the needle and allows Brexit ought influence forward.

The details of today’s business remain unclear, and there are quiet plenty of dissatisfied crowd at both the UK and EU sides. besides a hurdle looks ought eat been cleared, and Brexit talks will advance.

ERDOGAN V TRUMP

President Trump’s announcement that the US would recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s leading and (eventually) influence its embassy there has provoked anger and lamentation from about the world. besides it was the response from Turkey’s headmaster Recep Tayyip Erdogan that truly caught our eye. Erdogan warned that Trump’s influence crosses a “red line” because Muslims and that he will rally other Muslim countries at protest. A few thoughts:

  • Erdogan clearly didn’t know the class from headmaster Barack Obama that you ought never draw a red rank at the heart East unless you’re voluntary and able ought enforce it.
  • Erdogan can’t say because the world’s Muslims any more than Israeli select Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can speak because the world’s Jews, during he sometimes claims ought do.
  • Erdogan’s comments state us more about his private frustrations with Washington and his intent of using anti-American rhetoric ought rally uphold ahead of the next elections than about his policy plans.
  • Palestinians eat discuss ought be incensed. They don’t need Mr. Erdogan’s guidance at how ought vent their anger.
  • As my mate Alex Kliment wrote in Tuesday’s Signal, most Arab leaders are worried more about Iran than about Israel. They’ll aloud oppose Trump’s move, besides during anticipate during he treats Arab governments during allies and stays strong at Iran, they won’t fulfill much about it.
  • France’s headmaster Macron offered the most aware response: “The status of Jerusalem make ought be resolved along peace negotiations among Israelis and Palestinians.”

A persist point: The US hasn’t flat chosen a place because the new embassy. It will be a anticipate time ago a secure, well-constructed embassy can be built. It might receive more time than Trump will eat during president. because that reason, it might never be built.

PUPPET REGIME: PUTIN PUPPET PENANCE

In this week’s Puppet Regime, Vladimir Putin dishes on his hopes because Trump, and takes responsibility because each sole material that has gone wrong at America. complete of it. Everything. Also on YouTube.

AN AMERICAN feeling OF SCALE

The US division of global GDP has fallen considerably at the past few decades, during emerging economies comparable China, India, Brazil, South Korea, Mexico and others eat expanded. at 1970, the US accounted because 36.4% of the world’s economic output, according ought the World Bank. at 2016, that catalog was down ought 24.6%.

Yet, many Americans emerge ought eat an exaggerated recommendation of the decline of their country’s economic power. Here’s some context from Mark Perry and Richard Florida.

Economies that are comparable at size:

  • California and the United Kingdom
  • New York city and Canada
  • Florida and Indonesia
  • Los Angeles and Australia
  • Ohio and Saudi Arabia
  • New Jersey and Argentina
  • Massachusetts and Poland
  • South Carolina and Vietnam

US economic heft isn’t what it used ought be, besides none ought underestimate the continuing plead of access ought its markets and the influence it provides US policymakers, flat at the status flat and local level.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

The 212 defend Islam deed Alumni — One year ago this week, hardline Muslim groups that anticipate ought vary Indonesia into an Islamic status governed by Sharia regulation succeeded at defeating the ethnic Chinese and Christian prior Jakarta governor and having him thrown at jail. Those too groups commemorated their achievement this week with a large rally attended by the governor they supported during his replacement. Indonesia’s president, Joko Widodo, remainder customary and a defender of secular and inclusive government, besides we’ll retain watching ought growl on if these groups challenge him more direct at 2018 ahead of national elections at 2019.

Yemen — The killing of prior president Ali Abdullah Saleh will provoke more violence and compose more agony at a country that’s already refuge ought an huge humanitarian crisis. The pains at Yemen has killed about 14,000 crowd and forced 3 million from their homes. More than 1 million are afflicted with cholera. The UN estimates that more than 20 million Yemenis need humanitarian help.

The HJK Helsinki football association — Two events were booked at the too time at the Tukkutori fair at Helsinki. The first was a torchlight march of far-right Finnish nationalists ought celebrate the 100-year anniversary of Finland’s independence. The second was a children’s group that wanted ought sign the too happen with rabbits and alpacas. Local officials ruled that the guys with torches applied because the allow first. The HJK Helsinki football club then offered the kids, bunnies, and alpacas the utilize of its stadium. #Suomi100

WHAT WE’RE IGNORING

Early ANC voting — Cyril Ramaphosa has reportedly opened a lead in the warfare ought decide who will lead the ruling African National rally into South Africa’s next selection at 2019. We’re ignoring preliminary results. We’ll be watching closely (and writing about) the true result of the vote afterward this month. Its significance is historic, besides much can vary among now and then. 

The color yellow — Here’s another novel you can disregard until afterward at the month. Spain’s electoral authority has ordered officials at Barcelona to remove yellow lights from public fountains about the city during they fright the color yellow, associated with Catalan identity, will encourage separatist sentiment. Catalans will vote at regional elections at December 21. flat if separatist parties favour there will be no sudden moves toward independence, besides petition can again commence ought grow. That won’t be during of yellow lights at public fountains. 

The Yulin city Zoo — dear Finnish kids, entertain fulfill no send your bunnies and alpacas ought the zoo at Yulin, China, where the featured attractions are inflatable penguins, some roosters, and a “longevity turtle.” This is no China’s first zoo scandal. According ought The Straits Times, “In 2013, an ‘African lion’ at a zoo at Henan was revealed ought be a Tibetan mastiff when it barked.”

THE NEW SPACE RACE?

Some provocative thoughts at synthetic intelligence, from a new Eurasia Group-Sinovation Ventures white composition at the future of AI at China: China has 3 epoch the number of mobile phone users during the United States, places 10 epoch more online food orders, and does 50 epoch the US volume at mobile payments. if AI is the most strategically significant technique of the 21st century, and huge news sets are the key ought mastering AI, will Beijing eat an insurmountable advantage?

HARD NUMBERS

230: This week the U.S. and South Korea launched its largest-ever mutual stand exercise, which included 230 aircraft. #KimControl

560,000: Lethal violence (homicides and war) killed 560,000 crowd at 2016. The world’s five most stormy countries: Syria, El Salvador, Venezuela, Honduras, and Afghanistan.

27: Australia is the twenty-seventh country to legalize same-sex marriage. The country’s 47,000 same-sex couples can now fasten the knot.

65: With his tour ought Greece, headmaster Recep Tayyip Erdogan became the first Turkish headmaster ought growl on Greece at 65 years.

53: China is one of the world’s most optimistic nations, with 53 percent of citizens saying they trust the world is “getting better.” maiden 16 percent of Americans, seven percent of Germans, and four percent of Mexicans feel the too way.

WORDS OF WISDOM

“A business at Brussels is good news because madam can during we can now further ought the next stage of humiliation.”

- prior leading of the UK Independence dinner and prominent Brexit proponent Nigel Farage reacts to the recent breakthrough at negotiations among the UK and EU.

 

This edition of sign was written by Willis Sparks, and prepared with editorial uphold from Kevin Allison (@KevinAllison), Leon Levy (@leonmlevy), and Gabe Lipton (@Gflipton). mental advise from Alex Kliment (@saosasha). award a mate the Signal here.

If you comparable what you see, be certain to sign up to accept it at your inbox first material each Tuesday and Friday. And if you comparable what you see, tell a friend to groan up too.

 

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